AZ Legislative Update 11-04-2022
While every vote in every one of Arizona’s 30 legislative districts matters, most districts have a clear shift toward one political party or the other. A handful of districts around the state, though, are truly competitive – political parties have comparable support from voters in the area, and registered independent voters enhance the competition between Republicans and Democrats.
Here are some key dynamics of those tight legislative races:
- Far-right candidates are running against Democrats.
In the Primary Election last August, candidates aligned with the more right-wing side of the Republican party defeated more politically moderate Republicans in key districts. Democrats hope these candidates will cause independent voters to support their candidates; Republicans hope those voters will move past Primary Election party divides and support the more conservative candidate.
- Just one Democrat is vying against two Republicans.
In competitive districts, Democrats are implementing a strategy that has worked in the past: They’re running just one House candidate, conceding that Republicans will win one seat in the district and focusing all their support on a Democrat for the other seat.
- Incumbents are facing each other.
In Phoenix, current Senator Nancy Barto (R) and Senator Christine Marsh (D) are running against each other for another term in the Senate in a race that has been focused on abortion rights. Barto is a longtime member of the legislature who has led many of the state’s efforts to limit abortion access; Marsh is a rising star in the Democrat party who has led opposition to Barto’s abortion bills. This seat is not just about victory in this district, though: Both political parties view it as a key to earning a majority of seats in the Senate.
- Newcomers are challenging incumbents.
Some competitive races pit legislative incumbents against newcomers who believe they can do the job better than the current lawmaker. Campaigns for Senate seats in Chandler and Casa Grande have featured more traditional races between incumbent Republicans and Democrats. Without the political extremes seen in candidates in other areas of the state, these races have focused heavily on policy differences and diverging goals outlined by each political party.
- Everyone is a write-in.
Both political parties are focused on a district in South Phoenix because there is no candidate on the printed ballot. The winner of the Primary Election withdrew from the race, leaving the seat open to whichever write-in candidate earns the most votes next week. Republicans view the unusual situation as a chance to elect a Republican in this district where registered Democrats dramatically outnumber Republicans; Democrats are trying to corral support around one candidate that can prevent the seat from shifting away from their party.
While it’s impossible to predict the outcomes of these and other important races, one thing is clear: We won’t know most election results on Election Day. Fewer voters have used early voting this election, and a new state law could lead to more recounts. Click here for updated information as it is available, beginning at 8:00 p.m. Tuesday evening.
How to Vote in the General Election
To find your polling place or voting information, visit the Arizona Voter Information Portal. To learn more about the candidates, visit the Secretary of State’s listing. Read opinions for or against ballot measures if you want more input to inform your decisions. Check out this review of judicial performance to help decide how to vote on all those judges listed on your ballot.
What’s Next?
In the days following Tuesday’s election, returning and newly elected lawmakers will gather at the Capitol for closed-door meetings that will determine the leadership teams for Republicans and Democrats in the next legislative term. Behind the scenes, candidates have been vying for support from their colleagues and fellow candidates, seeking support for the opportunity to set policy priorities of the next session.
In the News
A new ruling opens the door for future Arizona Governors to redirect the school trust fund without Congressional permission. The Aggregate Expenditure Limit has a big impact on school district budgets. The state renewed funding for another year of a free summer camp program. The next governor could make big changes to state regulatory boards. Longtime legislator Art Hamilton wants a return to civility in politics.
On the Bright Side…
Hazel has advice for a long life.